Pokercode co-founder Matthias Eibinger found himself in a tricky spot playing the $10,000 EPT Online High Roller. With the chip lead in hand and six players remaining, he clashed with Daniel 'SmilleThHero' Smiljkovic and was put to the test with just ace-high.
Matthias opened up about the hand to our Pokercode students after the hand and elaborated on the decisions he took during the hand. Settle in and enjoy a look inside the mind of Austria's #1.
On the river I used 90 seconds of my time bank, thinking about how I think my opponent would play on the turn. While it is a river decision - I think the most important street is the turn and how my opponent is playing it.
To start, I want to be aware of what hands I lose against and what hands I can beat. On the river, I beat KQ, KJ, QJ, A5s in all colors that had a backdoor on the flop (spades, diamonds, & hearts).
I lose against Tx (JTs, QTs, KTs, ATs,), sets (66, 88, TT), overpairs (KK, AA), a straight (97s), lighter value bets (98s, 87s, 65s, 99, 77, A8s, & A6s).
Looking at it this way shows pretty clearly that there are way more hands I lose to compared to hands that I beat.
Now my thoughts on the turn and why I ended up thinking that a call is the better move.
How is my opponent playing the hands I beat on the River?
These hands are KQ, KJ, QJ, & A5s with backdoors. I think that he would check them back most of the time. Players are comfortable to bluff if they can represent something. For example, if the turn is a 9 or an 8, I think he would bluff a lot more aggressively with those combos. Even with the KQ, KJ, QJ of diamonds I think he will check it back very often cause he is afraid to face an all-in bet - where he would have to fold a lot of equity.
How I think my opponent is playing hands that I lose against on the River?
I think my opponent would do the following with the hands we gave him above: Tx - a mix of bet & check, sets - mixed as well, overpairs - KK would often 4-bet preflop and otherwise bet the turn and AA could check. He is probably folding 97s preflop so we can ignore that hand. I think 98s and 87s would often bet on the turn as they have some equity. I said earlier that the turn is hard for him to represent strong and therefore he would check back all his KQ, KJ, QJs hands, however, if players have equity like a gutshot, I still think they will bet frequently. I think 99, 77, and A6s would often bet small in position, mostly for protection. If I reshove he can just fold them and I find it very unlikely that I would check/shove as a bluff here.
Additional thought: He might check back a lot of the hands I would lose against on the river. 6x, 8x, 99, & 77 could for sure check back given that the pot already has a significant size.
Hands that I beat are mostly playing this line (check turn + bluff river)
Hands that I lose against are often taking other lines (bet turn, check river)
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