what's your poker skill?
New Skill Quiz 2024
Take quizPokercode co-founder Matthias Eibinger found himself in a tricky spot playing the $10,000 EPT Online High Roller. With the chip lead in hand and six players remaining, he clashed with Daniel 'SmilleThHero' Smiljkovic and was put to the test with just ace-high.
Matthias opened up about the hand to our Pokercode students after the hand and elaborated on the decisions he took during the hand. Settle in and enjoy a look inside the mind of Austria's #1.
On the river I used 90 seconds of my time bank, thinking about how I think my opponent would play on the turn. While it is a river decision - I think the most important street is the turn and how my opponent is playing it.
To start, I want to be aware of what hands I lose against and what hands I can beat. On the river, I beat KQ, KJ, QJ, A5s in all colors that had a backdoor on the flop (spades, diamonds, & hearts).
I lose against Tx (JTs, QTs, KTs, ATs,), sets (66, 88, TT), overpairs (KK, AA), a straight (97s), lighter value bets (98s, 87s, 65s, 99, 77, A8s, & A6s).
Looking at it this way shows pretty clearly that there are way more hands I lose to compared to hands that I beat.
Now my thoughts on the turn and why I ended up thinking that a call is the better move.
How is my opponent playing the hands I beat on the River?
These hands are KQ, KJ, QJ, & A5s with backdoors. I think that he would check them back most of the time. Players are comfortable to bluff if they can represent something. For example, if the turn is a 9 or an 8, I think he would bluff a lot more aggressively with those combos. Even with the KQ, KJ, QJ of diamonds I think he will check it back very often cause he is afraid to face an all-in bet - where he would have to fold a lot of equity.
How I think my opponent is playing hands that I lose against on the River?
I think my opponent would do the following with the hands we gave him above: Tx - a mix of bet & check, sets - mixed as well, overpairs - KK would often 4-bet preflop and otherwise bet the turn and AA could check. He is probably folding 97s preflop so we can ignore that hand. I think 98s and 87s would often bet on the turn as they have some equity. I said earlier that the turn is hard for him to represent strong and therefore he would check back all his KQ, KJ, QJs hands, however, if players have equity like a gutshot, I still think they will bet frequently. I think 99, 77, and A6s would often bet small in position, mostly for protection. If I reshove he can just fold them and I find it very unlikely that I would check/shove as a bluff here.
Additional thought: He might check back a lot of the hands I would lose against on the river. 6x, 8x, 99, & 77 could for sure check back given that the pot already has a significant size.
Hands that I beat are mostly playing this line (check turn + bluff river)
Hands that I lose against are often taking other lines (bet turn, check river)
Do you want to get a deeper look inside the brightest minds in the game? Subscribe to Pokercode and get exclusive access to our community where Matthias, Fedor, and Simon are able to answer all your questions. Improve in an environment like no other - join the Pokercode today!
Check out our other articles, interviews, and stories. You'll love it!
